Today ICES released scientific advice for key pelagic stocks for 2027. To the surprise of the KFO, the advice provides a more positive outlook than last year, with some small green shoots in the trajectory of key pelagic stocks.  However, while the moderate increase in advice offers hope for the near future, there is no time to be complacent.

Where the advice for 2026, led to across-the-board cuts in key stocks, the latest advice shows moderate increases for mackerel (+102% based on headline advice for 2026 but +18% based on the final 2026 TAC), for blue whiting (+25%) and for boarfish (+13%). ICES has also advised smaller increases for horse mackerel (+6.7%) and Atlanto-Scandian herring (+10%), which are also important for the KFO members.

Reacting to the ICES recommendations, Dominic Rihan, CEO of the KFO, stressed, “After several years of bad news, the advice comes as welcome news. The increases in scientific advice for our key stocks will bring a minor level of stability to the pelagic fleet and much needed increased quotas for 2027”.

While the overarching trends are positive there is still much work to be done to build on the positive trends observed by ICES scientists. For mackerel, Ireland’s most valuable stock, the EU continues to pay the price for the longstanding overfishing – up to 40% – by other Coastal States.

Additionally, fishing effort in northern waters, notably by Russia, Iceland and Greenland has continued to increase, particularly in the summer months when traditionally little fishing occurred. The advice clearly shows the exponential increase in activity during summer in international waters correlates closely with the decline in the mackerel stock.

Commenting on the situation on the fishing grounds, Ciaran Doherty, chair of the KFO, highlighted, “We are still not out of the woods as far as mackerel is concerned. Firm action is urgently needed to curtail the irresponsible behaviour of other nations in setting unsustainable, unilateral quotas while facilitating Russian vessels to overfish. The threat to our industry remains so we cannot be complacent”.

On the scientific side, the KFO acknowledges and appreciates the work of the scientists form the Marine Institute who input into the assessments and strive to improve and expand stock surveys, increase data collection and develop assessment methodologies.

However, the KFO has serious concerns about the reliability of the summer acoustic (WESPAS) survey carried out by the Marine Institute. ICES highlighted potential issues with this survey to an extent that data collected were not included in the assessment for boarfish, a species that has increased in importance for the Irish pelagic industry. Indications are that the acoustic data significantly underestimated the size of the boarfish shoals, leading to an underestimate of biomass of boarfish and other species (herring, horse mackerel, blue whiting) during the survey.

Commenting, Dominic Rihan highlighted, “We very much respect the Marine Institute and the work they do. However, these survey issues need to be fully and transparently investigated. The implications of not carrying out a thorough review and rectifying any errors found are serious for the future advice and fishing industry”.

On concluding on the overall picture for 2027, Ciaran Doherty concluded, “The pelagic industry remains in a precarious picture despite the moderately positive advice. The pressures on vessel owners haven’t gone away. We need a long-term strategy and call on the Minister to publish the Berkery report that we hope provides a vision for a sustainable future”.